Is the Surge working? It depends on what we mean by ‘working’. The answer is “yes” if we mean that the Surge has helped to temporarily reduce violence, and thus increase the Malaki government’s still very poor chances of consolidating its long-term power, in Iraq. However, contrary to McCain’s most important foreign policy position, there is no good reason to think that it has done more than that.

Lately, McCain’s main (relevant) criticism of Obama is that Obama does not acknowledge the success of the Surge. Obama does not give credit to Bush where credit is due. Indeed, McCain goes so far as to claim that Obama is willing to lose the war in order to win the election. Yet Obama acknowledges that the Surge has helped to reduce violence and improve the Malaki government’s chances. So how is Obama failing to acknowledge the success of the Surge? McCain offers no clear answer. Probably that is because the only possibilities, besides that he hopes to ride the Surge into the White House, are embarrassing for McCain.

Democracy hasn’t gained much traction in Iraq, despite good turnouts at some Iraqi elections. The great divides that we hear so much about, between Sunni, Shi’i, and Kurds, have something to do with this. But why can’t they come to some kind of minimally decent arrangement? A big part of the problem, as most people know, has been the Bush Administration’s many blunders in Iraq. Less well known, I think, is how Bush’s blunders here at home may have hurt Iraq’s chances, too.

I am thinking of Bush’s “winner-take-all” approach to American democracy. It is among the most striking features of his presidency that he is there for “those that brung him”, and only “those that brung him”. We hear this often from his friends, like former Ambassador to the U.N., John Bolton, and Republican defectors, like Rhode Island Senator-R, Lincoln Chaffee. On National TV his Vice President recently laughed and said, “So?” when reminded that over 70% of Americans are opposed to the Iraq War. And so on, and on, and on... . Bush seems to positively beam whenever someone brings up how outraged are his opponents.

What does this have to do with Iraq? Plenty, I think. For one thing, Bush’s radical partisanship cuts him off from much good advice and help (including almost all expert advice and help) concerning Iraq. But there is something else that we usually miss: the “winner-take-all” approach to democracy is exactly the wrong model of democracy for Iraq. America has long been a role model of democracy, especially for culturally and religiously diverse nations. However, Bush’s America has become just the opposite. “To the victors go the spoils” is the message of Bush’s American democracy...

Once upon a time, I thought very little about the super powers of my party’s Superdelegates. How I long for those days! Now I get steamed every time I’m reminded that the party aristocracy may overturn the likely plebeian majority for Obama. Apparently, that’s a strong possibility. At least Clinton thinks so. At this point that’s her most realistic hope, and it’s good enough for her. Like Bush, she will accept being appointed after losing democratically.

When addressing an aristocracy, one can only beg on bended knee. I’ll give it a shot.

Your Highnesses, the DNC Superdelegates,

My knee is bended and I’m begging. In November I want a chance to vote for someone who didn’t vote for the Iraq War. Please, please, please don’t deprive me of that chance!

Those TV pundits who speculate that Clinton has a better chance in the general election because she carried more big blue and purple states than Obama, are wrong more often than they are right. It is worth remembering that taking their bait has hurt the party in the past. Remember also that there is also a strong case for the opposite conclusion...

Last year Army 1st Lieutenant, Ehrin Watada, refused an order to deploy to Iraq because he believes that the U.S. war effort there is "illegal and immoral". He has no shortage of vocal supporters and critics. However, his case raises important problems that are not yet getting the public attention they deserve. I will say something about two of them, one in this blog and one in the next.