
Far from being a socialist left-winger, Keynes ... was suspicious of the power of unions, inveighed against the perils of inflation, praised the virtue of profits. "The engine which drives Enterprise," he wrote, "is not Thrift but Profit." He condemned the Marxists as being "illogical and so dull" and saw himself as a doctor of capitalism... Communists, Marxists and the British Labor Party's radical fringe damned Keynes because he sought to strengthen a system that they wanted to overthrow. (Time Magazine, Dec.31, 1965)We've talked about it before. Things are not so good. We've got two wars: one we were misled into in Iraq, and another slightly less problematical in Afghanistan. Then there's the embattled economy on our own shores.
According to the Dept. of Labor Bureau of Statistics, in early December 15.4 million Americans were still out of work -- more than the combined populations of Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri. Those who try but can't find full time jobs or whose hours have been cut add 9.2 million more. And those jobs often pay less and have fewer benefits. Close to a million more have given up -- quit trying. The rate of job losses may have slowed, but the situation remains grim.
According to a recent New York Times story featuring a poll by Mortgage Bankers Association, 5 million homeowners are behind in payments, and another 2.3 million in foreclosure. “Clearly the results are being driven by changes in employment,” Jay Brinkmann, economist for MBA told the Times.
Americans are not spending. Many have little or nothing to spend. Some are too nervous. With a capitalist-consumerist system, that means trouble - more jobs are lost, and the downward spiral grows, and grows, and grows. That happened in the Great Depression, and we're lucky it hasn't happened again. But it could.
Some citizens today not only vilify the new administration for problems it didn't create, but are uncomfortably like those preceding the Great Depression and immediately after. They don't get the need for increased government spending.
Most economists back then thought that in a depression or a serious recession, the government should cut spending to balance the budget, even raise taxes if necessary. Until the last year of his administration, Herbert Hoover did exactly that.
In 1929, before the crash, unemployment was just over 3 pct. Two years later, in 1931, it had hit 16 pct.-- with essentially the same effect as today. By 1933, unemployment had reached 25 percent. Finally, in desperation, Hoover spent a little more than tax revenues, but it was too late. Things got worse. There were bread lines. Revolution was in the air.
FDR had swallowed the Adam Smith "invisible hand" theory that government must reduce expenses, cut taxes, and generally stay out of business. Roosevelt ran and won on a promise to end the deficit spending and balance the budget. That should solve the problem in the long run, the theory went.
John Maynard Keynes, an eccentric and multi-talented Englishman, saw it differently. In times of deep unemployment and recession, Keynes agreed that government should cut taxes and interest rates. But government should also spend money to spur the economy and create jobs - deficits be damned. As for the long run, Keynes famously said, "In the long run, we're all dead."
In 1934, Keynes came to the White House to advise Roosevelt. When Keynes left, FDR reportedly said, "I didn't understand a word that man was saying." What happened, however, was that in every year of his administration, Roosevelt did spend more than tax revenues produced.
Earlier, in 1933, he created Civilian Conservation Corps and 3.5 million government-paid jobs. Later, in 1942, they were absorbed into the military.
In 1935 came the Works Project Administration which provided nearly 8 million jobs - in construction and a wide variety of public works. Very few areas today do not have a bridge, a road, or a building built by WPA workers. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew steadily from 1933 through 1937. It took a short dip in 1938 when FDR cut some New Deal programs, then again climbed steadily, fed by job-creating military (Keynesian) expenditures through World War II. The WPA remained until 1943 and was the largest employer in the country. Roosevelt had to admit he had been wrong about John Maynard Keynes.
Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor and now a professor at Brandeis University, writes:
"In 1938 the Depression deepened. Reluctantly, F.D.R. embraced the only new idea he hadn't yet tried, that of the bewildering British 'mathematician.' As the President explained in a fireside chat, 'We suffer primarily from a failure of consumer demand because of a lack of buying power.' It was therefore up to the government to 'create an economic upturn' by making 'additions to the purchasing power of the nation.' " (Time Mag, Mar. 29, 1999)
Roosevelt finally got it, and we should, too. The critical discussion now should not be about the general strategy, but the specific targets of the government stimulus. We'd better get them right.














Comments (3)
Thank you for this, Bob. I think these free market advocates have selective amnesia in terms of the history of recessions and economic downturns. I think Keynes was right in his economic theories. It baffles me how people can have such faith in unfettered free markets to get us out of this economic mess when the markets are what got us in this mess in the first place.
Posted by Angelo Lopez
|
December 11, 2009 1:09 PM
Posted on December 11, 2009 13:09
I just got an email from someone who read my comment and disagrees with both my comment and Bob's blog. I'll reply here, as Bob's blog is a good argument and I could refer to his blog.
The recession that we are having right now is not an anomaly in the history of our free market system. In the course of this country's history, the United States has had periods of serious economic crisis in 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1919, 1929 and last year. They were mostly the result of overspeculation, whether it be in the railroad industries in the 19th century or the real estate market today, and they resulted in sever downturns in the economy. The market system just naturally goes through these boom and bust cycles, and during these downturns, the poor and working class suffer the most.
Bob is right when he wrote:
"Americans are not spending. Many have little or nothing to spend. Some are too nervous. With a capitalist-consumerist system, that means trouble - more jobs are lost, and the downward spiral grows, and grows, and grows. "
Bob is right in pointing out that Keynes was trying to save the capitalist system, not overthrow it. The capitalist system has many benefits, but it's not perfect. Unfettered free markets tend to self destruct. Without government intervention and regulations to help the poor and the middle class, the economic benefits of capitalism tends to get shared by a smaller group of people.
Reread Bob Hooper's blog. I can't write things more clearly than Bob does on the strengths of Keynes arguments for temporary deficit spending to pull the economy out of worsening economic downturns. I think the Bush and Clinton administrations share equal blame for weakening the banking regulations set up during the New Deal and for placing too much trust in unregulated free markets.
Free markets have their benefits. But without some government regulations, markets will always crash, as they've done in 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1919, 1929 and 2008.
Posted by Angelo Lopez
|
December 12, 2009 1:28 PM
Posted on December 12, 2009 13:28
Your narrative about the Great Depression and the allegedly beneficial effects of the “New Deal”, deficit spending, etc. is erroneous and highly misleading.
The best history of this period was written by Benjamin M. Anderson in a book titled, “Economics and the Public Welfare: A Financial and Economic History of the United States, 1914 - 1946”.
Anderson, born in 1888, was the chief economist for Chase Manhattan Bank during this period of history and authored the widely respected Chase Economic Bulletin issued weekly. He not only witnessed the events of this period, he participated directly in many of them, including testifying before Congress.
Anderson’s book is packed with figures and statistics from institutions such as the Federal Reserve, Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, etc. He uses these facts and figures to explode the many leftists myths and fallacies about this period. He demonstrates, beyond doubt, the following points:
1) That the Depression of 1920 - 1921 was the result of a huge bubble in commodity prices and corresponding economic distortions caused by government spending in the years preceding -- a bubble that popped when said spending could no longer continue -- resulting in a depression.
2) That the subsequent recovery from that depression -- managed completely by the private sector -- with no federal government involvement, no “bailouts”, no Keynesian stimulus, with government spending actually going DOWN -- said recovery was fast and erased most of the unemployment problem in only a year.
In summation, a hands-off, laissez-faire approach by the government permitted the private markets to resolve this depression in relatively short order.
3) Anderson shows that the Great Depression was brought on by more “bubbles” in various markets created by the policies of the Federal Reserve, which for the first significant time in its history began to engage in massive “open market” operations from 1922 - 1928 that created a vast expansion of credit.
This expansion of credit was funneled into two areas: international loans to foreign nations who used the loans primarily to purchase exports from the U.S. (such credit being made more necessary by tariff increased in the early 1920s) -- thus causing an artificial and unsustainable boom in exports. The second area that absorbed a great deal of this excess credit was the stock market, which soared to completely unjustified prices as a result in 1927 - 1929.
The Federal Reserve eventually became alarmed at these bubbles and switched to a “tight money” policy in 1928, which eventually popped the stock market bubble in 1929. This was a severe economic blow, but as Anderson shows, by itself it was not enough to cause the Great Depression. More was needed to trigger the Depression -- and Hoover provided it.
In 1930, Hoover signed into law the Smoot-Hawley tariff . The results were disastrous.
To fully understand how and why this tariff was disastrous requires an understanding of international trade and finance -- which Anderson provides. In short, there was a huge amount of international, nation-to-nation debt by 1930. Most of it was compiled during the 1920s. Anderson points out that an expansion of credit always means an expansion of debt -- there can be no credit without a corresponding debtor. The Federal Reserve’s massive “open market” operations of the 1920s were in many cases matched by similar expansions of credit among the major European countries -- so a huge amount of debt was created.
Ultimately servicing this debt depends heavily on international trade. The ability to pay off debt to another country depends on an ability to sell products in that country and thereby acquire its currency to repay the debt.
But Smoot-Hawley, which inspired similar protectionist legislation across the world, completely wrecked international trade. Anderson shows that such trade collapsed.
(One immediate effect of this collapse in international trade was a collapse in commodity prices in the U.S.. Agriculture, which at that time still accounted for 40% of U.S. economic activity, was hit hard and a severe recession was triggered in the U.S. as a result -- a recession that Anderson demonstrates was immediately aggravated by Hoover‘s demands that wages be maintained even in the face of crashing demand.)
The collapse in international trade also brought immediate pressures on the central banks of most nations. For instance, when it became apparent that the central bank of Germany might not repay its debts -- because it could no longer export its products -- no one would extend it further credit and many depositors started withdrawing their funds. In short order, Germany was forced to abandon the gold standard -- as was Austria and then, finally, in 1931, even England abandoned the gold standard.
The shock of England’s action in abandoning gold and allowing the sterling to plummet only increased the fear and uncertainty that by now were gripping the major economies of the world. If you couldn’t trust the pound sterling, what could you trust? Anderson demonstrates how this caused private capital investment to virtually disappear. And it stayed gone throughout most of the Depression.
Anderson demonstrates clearly that the Great Depression -- far from being the result of a non-existent “laissez-faire capitalism” -- was in fact caused by the U.S. government’s interventionist economic policies and actions together with similar policies and actions on the part of many other governments around the world.
4) Anderson then proceeds to demonstrate the utter destructiveness of the additional “New Deal” programs that were implemented by Roosevelt.
Anderson shows that what little economic recovery occurred under Roosevelt generally happened only when his policies were defeated. For instance, Anderson details the recovery that got underway from January - July 1933 -- BEFORE Roosevelt was able to implement much of his “New Deal” -- and how this recovery was then aborted by the National Industrial Recovery Act (NRA). He demonstrates how the recovery was able to somewhat resume when the NRA was found unconstitutional in 1935, only to again be aborted when the Wagner Act -- written by the New Dealers to reinstate the most egregiously harmful labor aspects of the NRA -- was found constitutional and labor was unleashed to cause economically-crippling strikes in the automobile industry.
Anderson also complete refutes the myth that a reduction in deficit spending caused the great “recession within a depression” of 1937. Using Treasury Department figures, he shows that deficit spending continued unabated throughout the crash.
The above barely begins to skim the content of this book. It is 597 pages of small print -- for a reason. It is packed with figures, facts and details that prove Benjamin Anderson’s points about the value of free markets and free trade versus the destructive effects of government’s economic interventions. John Maynard Keynes is thoroughly eviscerated by this presentation of facts.
Benjamin Anderson died in 1949, the year after his book was publishes. Were he alive today, I’m sure he would be horrified to see today’s “progressives” repeating virtually all of Hoover’s, Roosevelt’s and the Federal Reserve’s disastrous mistakes of the past. We ignore his lesson at our peril.
Posted by AisA
|
August 29, 2010 9:31 AM
Posted on August 29, 2010 09:31