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Authors, sign in!Now that the off-off-year elections are over, which, according to the mainstream media, the Republicans won overwhelmingly, which, according to the same, puts the Democrats on the defensive, and will likely lead to their double-digit loss of seats in 2010.
Honestly, could they get any dumber? In the first place, the winners of the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia tamped down their conservatism because they were smart enough politicians to know that teabaggers are a relatively small slice of the electorate and elections are won in the middle.
For the Republican leadership--Limbaugh, Beck, Bachmann, and their minions--this kind of moderation is treason. Sure, they'll happily claim victory in New Jersey and Virginia, but, in their heart of hearts, they would rather have lost both governorships if they could have won an ideological victory in New York's 23rd congressional district.
How much of a victory can it be when, at the close of election day on Tuesday, the Democrats had two more votes for health care reform, and two more votes for a public option? One might also note...
Of the five special congressional elections held in the past year and a half, Democrats have won all five. This is not to say that 2010 won't be a tough election for the Democrats. Historically, the party in the White House almost always loses votes in the mid-terms. If health care reform falls apart, the Democrats could lose up to 25 seats, and would deserve to lose them.
If real health care reform passes, however, the Democratic Party, from top to bottom, will be energized. The blue dogs, having voted for the least liberal bill that passes, will have to run on it, and they will more than likely win. Health care reform can save them in spite of themselves.
Secondly, the jobs picture should be at least somewhat better a year from now. Granted, the unemployment rate is 10%, and real unemployment is closer to 16%, the worst since Reagan. One notes, however, that job losses peaked in the last month of the Bush presidency and the rate of loss has fallen ever since. A year from now, we should be gaining jobs instead of losing them. That alone changes the electoral calculus significantly.
Lots of things can happen in a year, but my guess is that the Democrats will do all right in 2010. If the teabagger wing of the GOP is successful in driving off all moderates, the Democrats may even gain seats. The GOP is the party of choice for cranky middle-aged white people who watch Fox news, but that is a much smaller slice of the entire electorate than they think.
Published November 6, 2009 by John Petty |
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