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« Class Counts, Well, Not Everywhere | Main | Take the Pledge: Buy America »


Global Warming's Not a Hoax, So Cool It

By Bob Hooper
May 21, 2009


Yet even as the oil giants show off their green stripes, they have quietly pursued a strategy that works against the environmental tide: buying up rights to explore Arctic and sub-Arctic lands soon-to-be exposed as global warming melts the polar ice. Such territories likely hold vast new stocks of oil, gas, and minerals, and the oil companies and other energy and mining interests are investing heavily in the warmer globe. (Joshua Kurlantzick, American Prospect, Nov. 2006)
Kansas Governor Mark Parkinson's brokering a deal to permit one new coal-fired power plant in Kansas can be interpreted variously.

Either he thinks that: 1) man-caused global warming is nonsense; 2) making it only a little bit worse somehow makes it a little bit better; or, 3) what the hell, there's money to be made and favors to be won. My money is on #3.

In January, Peter Doran (associate professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Illinois, Chicago) and his former graduate student published results of a world-wide survey sent to 10,200 earth scientists listed in American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments. The survey had only nine concise, objectively phrased questions, two at the heart of the matter: 1) Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels? 2) Has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures? 90% of responding scientists agreed with the first question; 82% said yes to the second. But get this…

Breaking responses into sub-groups revealed something very interesting. 97% of climatologists doing active research agreed that human activity played a significant role. But less than half of petroleum geologists and 64% of meteorologists thought so. As for the general public, Doran cited a recent poll showing that 58% think human activity accounts for global warming.

"The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists' is very interesting," Doran said. "Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomena."
Climate experts have a tough job in educating the public. Bible fundamentalists who believe the earth and all on it was created in 7 days, 6000 years ago, reject science that says that oil and gas were locked for millions of years in the bowels of the earth. They dismiss the environmental impact of using 310.3 million barrels of oil and over 100 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually -- a tiny fraction of the time to accumulate those resources. The oil and gas industry as well as anti-regulatory conservatives in general have their own motives for casting suspicion and doubt, and plenty of money to donate to propaganda efforts.

In my local paper, the Hays Daily News, a year or more ago, a reader cited a petition claiming that over 31,000 U.S. "scientists" disputed global warming was real, or that it was related to human activity. That sounded significant. I took a look.

The Oregon Petition Project originated in 1998 by Dr Frederick Seitz, who died last July at age 97. He most recently served as an emeritus board member of the anti-regulatory right wing think tank, George C. Marshall Institute. A PBS interview with Seitz can be found here.

Likely as a reaction to Nobel Prize winner Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, the petition was more recently promoted by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine -- an impressive name for a rural building of 7000 square feet with 6 "faculty" -- two of which are the founder's sons -- and zero students. The group does market Christian home schooling books for parents worried about socialism in public schools.

The methodology is sloppy. Specific funding sources remain a secret. No institutions or addresses are listed of those who sign. When they do, they are offered extra petitions to pass around. One plus: they are all listed, even by state. I printed off Kansas' 314 signers. Most (206) claim bachelor's or master's degrees. Thirty-four are veterinarians or MD's. (My mother's cardiologist had signed up. Nice enough guy.)

I concentrated on the 74 PhD's, selecting one of every four, or 18 in all.

I could not verify a "T. Harder" or an "M. Griffin." Of the remaining 16, two are dead (an architectural engineer and a biochemist). Another signer holds a business degree, one is a civil engineer, one is an agronomist. There are 3 chemists, and 2 weed scientists (one of them emeritus). Two others (one retired) are wind erosion specialists. Another emeritus PhD is a pharmacologist/toxicologist. One signer specializes in range science and plant physiology. There was also a biologist and one geologist. (One of the weed scientists is now employed in Nebraska. A chemist, Robert Schroeder, may have moved out of Kansas as well). Significantly, none were listed as climate scientists or meteorologists. I am not impressed.

I did some math. For the top 10 oil producing states, the average percentage of signers relative to population was 80% higher than in the remaining 40 states. Think about that. (It also might be fun to look at political affiliation.)


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