So much for transformational politics & re-making the map

Talking points memo (TPM) goes through paroxysms trying to find a way for Obama to "thread the electoral needle" and win the election. They start by giving Obama all the states Kerry won in 2004.

Win Ohio or Florida and it's over. Unfortunately, he currently trails in both, and by a fairly large margin in Florida. Without Ohio, he needs to "flip" either Virginia or Colorado. Colorado is likely to go for Obama. Virginia is currently a toss-up. Win both and that would give him 274 electoral votes and a victory.

But would Obama win all the states Kerry won in 2004? He currently trails in Michigan, and if McCain chooses Romney as VP, that would probably take Michigan away.

In that case, Obama would have to win both Colorado and Virginia, and then run the table on three smaller states --I owa (which he would probably win), plus New Mexico and Nevada (where he has a shot at both, but trails Clinton against McCain). That would also give him 274 votes and a victory -- dicey, definitely dicey, but doable. (Plus, nobody has said this, but, based on its proximity to Illinois and the Chicago-style politics of its northeast quadrant, I'd give him a shot at Indiana.) TPM's conclusion:

And in the end, despite the campaign's talk about remaking the map, it could come down to many of the same states that were closely watched in 2000 and 2004: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri, New Hampshire and a few others.

Incidentally, Hillary likely wins the Kerry map, plus Ohio, West Virginia, Arkansas, Nevada, and New Mexico for a total of 320 electoral votes. For caveats, she could win Iowa, but could lose Wisconsin. Moreover, she currently leads in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Missouri, but even an enthusiast like me doesn't see her winning those states -- especially Missouri, which always tantalizes us Democrats, but almost always winds up in the GOP column.

Comments (2)

Nora Thomason

I'm always fascinated by people who watch states voting and keep tabs on voting trends and strategies. I hope you'll continue sharing your thoughts on all of this so we can learn from you!

Posted by Nora Thomason | May 30, 2008 12:40 AM

Posted on May 30, 2008 00:40

Melissa Tuckey

Thanks for your analysis. Actually, there are polls showing Obama leads in Ohio-- so Ohio is very much in play. I've also seen polls that show him leading in Michigan. And Virginia is very much in play. One thing we've learned watching the polls so closely this election is that the numbers change over time. Once the democratic nomination process concludes and democrats unite there will be a bounce. McCain has been given a free ride these past months. That is soon to end.

Posted by Melissa Tuckey | May 30, 2008 8:59 AM

Posted on May 30, 2008 08:59

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